QUAD

IN NEWS:

• India has decided to host the Quad foreign ministers meet later this year. This comes in the backdrop of Japan, Australia and India launching a trilateral Supply Chain Resilience Initiative (SCRI) to reduce economic, trade and technological dependence on China.

QUAD:

• The Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, also known as the Quad, is an informal strategic forum between the United States, Japan, Australia and India.
• The first steps towards quad was originally born from the crisis that followed the tsunami in December 2004. The ‘Tsunami Core Group’, consisting of the U.S., Australia, India and Japan coordinated the humanitarian and disaster relief efforts.
• A direct pitch for Quad was first mooted in 2007 by Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. However, the idea didn’t move ahead.
• In 2012, Abe called for a “Democratic Security Diamond”, a Quad 2.0. In 2017, Representatives from the four nations met on the margins of the Manila ASEAN Summit. Since then, periodic meetings have continued.

WHY IS QUAD ESSENTIAL:

• Counter aggressive Chinese actions: The aggressions in the South China Sea and along India’s borders are indications of China attempting to unilaterally change the power dynamics in Asia. Only a powerful group like Quad can prevent China’s hegemonic regional ambitions over Asia.
• Freedom of navigation: The South China Sea seems set to become a “Lake Beijing": a sea deep enough for the Chinese navy to base their nuclear-powered attacks. This threatens the freedom of navigation and a strong grouping like Quad is essential to prevent this.
• Ensure global peace and security: Quad members share democratic values and are active supporters of a rules-based world order. Their presence will help ensure a free, prosperous and inclusive Indo-Pacific region.
• Address common threats: Quad can become an effective forum to address modern day challenges such as Terrorism, refugee crisis, human rights violations, cyber security, data colonisation, sea level rise and climate change.

CONCERNS OVER QUAD:

• Cold war 2.0 in the making: Due to the lack of specificity about the grouping, many scholars have pointed out that soon this group will turn into an ‘Asian-NATO’. It also raises the possibility of a concrete China-Pakistan-Russia nexus to counter the quad alliance in the Indian Ocean region.
• Bilateral relations with China: Each country has a unique relationship with China. For eg: Despite tensions, China is India’s 2^nd largest trading partner. In Australia, there’s the alleged Chinese influence in internal politics and universities. Hence, the members are cautious to China's sensitivities while dealing with Quad.
• China’s regional influence: China is putting diplomatic and economic pressure against any such grouping. As a result, regional powers like South Korea and Vietnam tries to distance itself from the grouping sensing anti-China sentiment.
• Still an informal dialogue: For now, Quad is merely a bureaucratic-level foreign-ministry-led dialogue and much less an alliance. It serves the limited purpose of political signalling and improves coordination among like-minded and capable maritime powers in the Indo-Pacific.
• Nuclear threat: Almost 6 countries possessing nuclear weapon lies in the Indo-Pacific (including North Korea) and even a small trigger can have grave consequences for peace and stability of the region.
• Unreliable USA: Due to the policies of the Trump presidency, USA’s credibility as a partner seems to be on a sharp decline. U.S. commitment to the security of the Indian ocean region remain uncertain. This has exacerbated scepticism and mistrust within the grouping.
• Unfavourable history: Historically, Cold War military alliances in South and Southeast Asia- such as SEATO, CENTO, ANZUS – were all failures because of the unwillingness of regional powers to cooperate. Even today, nation states value their diplomatic manoeuvrability than ceding their interests to a revisionist group.

INDIA’S BENEFITS FROM QUAD:

• Support against Chinese actions: India was at the receiving end of direct military coercion by China, engaging in a standoff at the borders and being blocked from membership in the nuclear suppliers’ group by China. With Quad, India gains stronger allies in countering China.
• Counter Belt and Road initiative: The Quad meetings have emphasised on developing connectivity. These efforts, if successfully implemented, challenges China in another sphere: a coordinated effort to provide financing and sustainable alternatives to China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).
• Strengthen India’s role in Indian ocean: India has strengthened its naval ties with each of the other Quad countries, and there have been more interactions, formal and informal at the official, political and military levels. This benefits India’s position as a net security provider in the Indian ocean region.  
• Enhance strategic partnerships: Quad meetings have offered an opportunity to strengthen partnership with the like-minded countries. The growing number of military exercises, strategic dialogues, technical agreements and coordinated activities.
• Greater say in geopolitics: With its membership in the Quad, India, being a resident power in East Asia, will have a greater say in matters concerning the Indo-Pacific. India could also use it to discuss regional issues and cooperate in places where the countries have converging interests, such as in Afghanistan.
• Benefits from potential expansion: In the future, quad may expand from being a strategic cooperation to an economic and political group, covering areas such as humanitarian assistance and disaster relief, cyber-security, energy security, and regional capacity-building. India, being a developing country, stands to benefit from this.

QUAD Vs. INDIA’S FOREIGN POLICY:

• Against non-alignment: Formally establishing ‘Quad’ as a military block to contain China will go against India’s policy of non-alignment. This can also affect relations with other third world powers such as Iran.
• Against India’s foreign policy principles: Working with Quad as an anti-China tool goes against India’s foreign policy principles of non-aggression and peaceful coexistence. Also, the premise of mini-lateralism that the Quad presupposes goes against India’s vision of inclusive growth in the Indo-Pacific region.
• India-China relations: Despite conflicts, India and China share strong trade and commercial relations. India relies heavily on Chinese imports for the manufacture of drugs and consumer goods.
• Upsets India’s balancing act: It is becoming very difficult for New Delhi to balance between the China-led Shanghai corporation organization (SCO) and the American-led ‘Quad’. This confusion of New Delhi forces the USA to keep an adequate distance from committing any security pact.
• Affects India-Russia relations: Joining military block with the USA undermine India’s interest in Central Asia, where Russia is the key defence partner. India’s huge dependence on Russia for its defence equipment and India’s foreign policy of Non-Alignment is the blocking stone for addressing common interest in the region.
• Contradicts with other groupings: India is a member of other strategic forums, such as the SCO with China, Russia and Central Asia, BRICS and Russia-India-China (RIC). This appears to be at cross purposes with a Quad alliance.

WAY FORWARD:

• Define objectives: Creating a better understanding of the nature of the Quad will be crucial. This can help address sensitivities, manage expectations and give members time to develop and act on an agenda.
• Expand cooperation: Quad will only succeed if it serves a more substantive purpose. the quadrilateral could be a useful platform to share assessments of Chinese capabilities, maritime security, humanitarian assistance and disaster relief, Cyber-security, energy security, and regional capacity-building.
• Prepare strategy for China: If the countries are to go ahead with Quad, they need to develop both individual and collective strategies in dealing with China — with whom they all will, and should, continue to engage.
• Foster mutual trust: Just one defection to a softer line on China could easily spell doom for the Quad all over again. To prevent this, members must engage in regular discussions and alleviate the lack of trust among the members.

Given the competing currents, there is no guarantee that Quad 2.0 will succeed. But India’s moves with the Quad bear more meaning than ever before on the path it will take to realise its strategic future.

PRACTICE QUESTION:

Q. With the Quad once again figuring prominently in the national security discourse, different perspectives have sprung up on what impact it can have on India’s foreign policy. In this regard, critically examine the impact of Quad on India’s interests?