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UN World Population Prospects (WPP)

2022 JUL 21

Mains   > Society   >   Population, poverty & associated issues   >   Population & Census

IN NEWS:

  • According to the 2022 edition of the United Nations’ World Population Prospects (WPP), India is projected to surpass China as the world’s most populous country in 2023. It also projected the world’s population to reach 8 billion on November 15, 2022.

WORLD POPULATION PROSPECTS, 2022:

  • World Population Prospects is the official UN population estimates and projections, prepared by the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs. The WPP has been preparing the biennial report since 1951.
  • Each revision of the WPP provides a historical time series of population indicators starting in 1950. The report includes demographic data to assess population trends at the global, regional and national levels.
  • In the latest report, the WPP has given projections up to the year 2100 and provides an analysis of demographic trends.

HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WPP REPORT:

  • India to be the most populous country:
    • India is projected to surpass China as the world’s most populous country in 2023. It is projected to have a population of 1.668 billion in 2050, compared to China’s 1.317 billion people.
  • Population growing at slower pace:
    • The world population will reach eight billion by mid-November this year, growing to around 8.5 billion in 2030 and 9.7 billion in 2050. The pace of growth, however, is slowing down. In 2020, the global growth rate fell under 1% per year for the first time since 1950.
  • Female to Male ratio:
    • At present, the world counts slightly more men (50.3 per cent) than women (49.7 per cent).
  • Disparate population growth:
    • More than half of the projected increase in global population up to 2050 will be concentrated in eight countries — India, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines and Tanzania.
  • Elderly population:
    • The global population of people aged 65 years or above is projected to rise to 16 per cent in 2050 from the current 10 per cent.
    • As per estimates, one in every four persons in Europe and Northern America is expected to be aged 65 years or over by 2050.
  • Life expectancy, fertility and mortality:
    • Global life expectancy at birth reached 72.8 years in 2019.
    • In 2021, the average fertility of the world’s population stood at 2.3 births per woman over a lifetime. It is projected to decline to 2.1 births by 2050.
    • A sustained drop in fertility has also resulted in an increased concentration of the population at working ages, between 25 and 64 years. 
    • More than 13 million babies — about 10 per cent of the total worldwide — were born to mothers younger than 20 in 2021.
  • International migration:
    • Over the next few decades, migration will be the major driver of population growth, especially in high-income countries.
  • Impact of COVID:
    • Global life expectancy at birth fell to 71 years in 2021 from 72.8 in 2019, mostly due to the impact of the coronavirus pandemic.
    • The WPP report also acknowledges the impact of COVID on international migration but adds that its magnitude on migration trends is difficult to ascertain due to data limitations.

IMPACT ON INDIA:

  • Revise population policy:
    • Despite the strong growth of Indian population, the current population policy continues to have a narrow perspective, giving more importance to contraception and sterilization.
    • Hence, the population policy must be revised to give adequate attention to basic prerequisites of meaningfully controlling population such as poverty alleviation, improving the standards of living and the spread of education.
    • India’s population policy:

https://www.ilearncana.com/details/INDIA%E2%80%99S-POPULATION-POLICY/46

  • Focus on human resource development:
    • Due to a rapidly ageing population, migration will be the sole driver of population growth in high-income countries in the coming years. Countries are already relaxing their immigration policies to attract talented youth. India, with its large young population, stands to gain from this.
    • To become a global supplier of workforce in the coming years, the demographic dividend needs to be strengthened, for which India must invest in the education, skill and health of its workforce.
    • India’s demographic dividend: https://www.ilearncana.com/details/Indias-Demographic-Dividend/804
  • Address child marriage:
    • As per the WPP, about 10 per cent of the total babies worldwide were born to mothers younger than 20 in 2021. As per UNICEF, a third of child marriages happen in India. Hence, India needs to work on eradicating child marriages and ensure safe development of children.  
    • https://www.ilearncana.com/details/Child-Marriage-in-India/2569
  • Thrust on geriatric care:
  • Reforms in global governance institutions:

CONCLUSION:

According to the latest National Family Health Survey (NFHS), the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) is decreasing in India, and it has gone down from 3.4 in 1992-93 to 2.0 in 2019-21 (NFHS). This indicates that the country is on course to achieving population stabilization. Hence, the fact that India will overtake China soon is not of grave concern. However, the concern is on how well India can utilize its human resource potential.

PRACTICE QUESTION:

Q. Recent population statistics indicate that India need to reassess its population policy. Discuss?