Middle East Crisis

WHY IN NEWS?

Tensions between Iran and USA have escalated in the recent days after US killed the Iran General. It is expected to have severe impact on India’s interest in the Middle East.

THE MIDDLE EAST:

• The term "Middle East" may have originated in the 1850s in the British India Office. It refers to a transcontinental region which includes Western Asia, all of Turkey and Egypt. Most Middle Eastern countries are part of the Arab world.
• Ethnicity: Arabs constitute the largest ethnic group in the Middle East, followed by various Iranian peoples and then by Turkic speaking groups (Turkish, Azeris, and Iraqi Turkmen).
• Religious composition: The Middle East is very diverse when it comes to religions. Several major religions have their origins in the Middle East, including Judaism, Christianity, and Islam. Islam is the largest religion in the Middle East, but other faiths such as Judaism and Christianity, are also well represented.
• Linguistic composition: The five top languages, in terms of numbers of speakers, are Arabic, Persian, Turkish, Kurdish, and Hebrew.
• Economy:
  • Middle Eastern economies range from being very poor (such as Gaza and Yemen) to extremely wealthy nations (such as Qatar and UAE).
  • Petroleum exploration and associated industries form the backbone of the major economies such as Saudi Arabia. Other industries include cotton textiles (Egypt), agriculture, cattle, leather products &defenceequipments (Israel) and banking & tourism (UAE and Bahrain).

REGIONAL CONFLICTS:

• The region has been a hotbed of conflicts throughout the history. The modern day conflicts (Post WW II) includes:

1. Israel-Palestine Conflict:
   • Tensions between Jews and Arab Muslims over Israel have existed for many centuries dating back to ancient times. It is considered a holy site by both the Jews and the Arabs, Jerusalem is considered sacred to both parties.   
   • Modern day conflicts arouse when Israel became an official state in 1948.  The battle for whose rightful land Israel is has been the backbone for much of the fighting that still goes on today.

2. Middle Eastern Cold war:
   • Saudi Arabia is almost elusively Sunni and Iran is almost all Shia population. Saudi Arabia and Iran have never declared war on each other, but these two countries are bitter rivals.
   • They are involved in almost every conflict that goes on in the region.  Instead of direct war these countries battle through proxy wars, where they fight indirectly and back or aid other countries in their conflicts. 
3. Syrian Civil War:
   • The Arab Spring was a series of pro-democracy demonstrations throughout the Middle East beginning in late 2010 in Tunisia.These mostly peaceful protests started to turn violent in some countries, most notably in Syria.
   • A civil war was has been waged in the region, which has resulted in deaths of over 500,000 Syrians and exodus ofover 5 million of Syria's 22 million population.
   • The civil war eventually became global with the inclusion of Russia and Iran backing the Shia led Bashar Government, while the United States and Europe backing the rebels who are almost all Sunni.
4. Battle against ISIS:
   • The Islamic State of Iraq and Syria is a Sunni terror group that has owned large areas in Iraq and Syria over the last seven years.  Born from al-Queda in Iraq, ISIS began its mission in 2011 and began to use international terrorism and gather recruits throughout the world with the use of propaganda and social media.
   • The Iraqi government with much help from the Kurds and US air strikes has been waging a war against the ISIS. The extremist group now has less than 4% of the land it had at its height. However, it has not been defeated and peace does not seem to be on deck anytime soon.
5. The USA and its regional interventions:
   • USA has always been part of the regional politics. Its fear of domino theory and later the fear against Al Qaeda have led it to intervene in the regional affairs, both directly and discreetly.
   • The US continues to have significant military presence in the region, especially in countries such as Iraq, Jordan, Afghanistan and Syria.
   • The long lasting rivalry with Iran continues to upset peace and stability in the region. It has in fact grown to dangerous proportions following the retreat of USA from the Iran nuclear deal and the killing of Iran’s Major General Qassem Soleimani.
6. Qatar Crisis:
   • It erupted when nine countries including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Bahrain cut off all kinds of diplomatic ties with Qatar.
   • The crisis has its genesis in Qatar’s link to Islamist political parties like the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, which the Saudi government calls a terrorist group. Saudi Arabia also had problems with the way Qatar engaged Iran and has been signaling Saudi distress over that relationship for a long time.
7. Kurdish Turkish issue:
   • The Kurds are one of the indigenous peoples of the Mesopotamian plains and the highlands in what are now parts of Turkey, Syria, Iraq, Iran and Armenia.
   • After World War One and the defeat of the Ottoman Empire, the victorious Western allies made provision for a Kurdish state in the 1920 Treaty of Sevres. However, this was ignored when the boundaries of modern-day Turkey were delineated. 
   • Kurds are a minority in Turkey and face several oppressions. Hence, the Kurds have been demanding for separation from Turkey to create an independent Kurdistan or to have autonomy and greater political and cultural rights for Kurds inside the Republic of Turkey. However, the demand has resulted in an armed conflict which is going on since 1978.   

INDIA’S INTERESTS IN THE REGION:

• Energy security:
  • 70% of India’s imported energy comes from West Asia. Iraq is the largest supplier of crude oil for India followed by Saudi Arabia. Qatar is the largest supplier of natural gas to India.
• Freedom of navigation:
  • The region hosts the most important choke point in global sea trade- The Suez Canal. Any instability in the region can result in severe disruption of global trade.
  • Peace and stability in the region is also vital for promoting India’s connectivity to Central Asian and Eastern European markets. Eg: Iran is a major point for India’s International North South Transit Corridor project.

• Economic interests:
  • India has strong bilateral trade links with West Asian countries. While it imports petroleum products, it exports agricultural products and service to its counterparts. Any threats to it can force fuel prices up, which aggravates India’s negative trade balance.
  • Indian enterprises have made significant investments in the region. India has invested in areas such as fertilizer plants (Oman India Fertiliser Company in Oman), ports (Chabahar in Iran) and oil exploration (ONGC Videsh recently acquired 10% stake in an offshore oil concession in Abu Dhabi, UAE)
  • Middle Eastern countries have also invested in India. For instance, Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (ADIA) announced its decision to invest US$ 1 bn in the National Investment & Infrastructure Fund.Saudi Aramco and Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) have reached an agreement with India to jointly develop the largest greenfield refinery in the world in Maharashtra.
  • Due to US sanctions over Iran, India deals with Iran in Indian Rupee. This is important for India to save its valuable Forex of dollars.
• Diaspora:
  • India’s presence in the Gulf is distinctly shaped by its massive expat community there.
  • The Gulf is India’s main source of expat remittances. Indian migrants in the GCC countries alone generated remittances worth $40 billion in 2018 highlights the need for India to stabilize its interests in the region.
  • The government also carries out humanitarian aid in the region. Eg: The Government provided medical assistance worth about US$ one million to Yemen in response to a request from the Yemeni government. It also carried out an evacuation operation in Yemen named Operation Rahat in 2015 during the height of conflict in the region.
• National Security:
  • Middle East is home to several terrorist outfits such as Al Qaeda and ISIS. They were masterminds behind several terror attacks within India and in its neighborhood. Hence India needs effective coordination with the Middle Eastern countries in matters of intelligence sharing and countering radicalizations.
  • Also, India seeks to use the close ties with Middle Eastern Countries to pressurize Pakistan to act against its state sponsored export of terror to India.
• Strategic interests:
  • Middle East is critical for India to balance its two major rivals: Pakistan and China.
    • Strategic presence in the region is vital for India to counter the ‘deep state’ theory of Pakistan and to encourage the development of war ravaged Afghanistan.
    • The Middle Eastern Countries are a major point in China’s ambitious ‘One Belt One Road’ project. India created the Chabahar port and INSTC as a counterweight to the OBOR, but their success relies on how well India can balance the geopolitics of the region.
  • Israel is a major supplier of defense equipments to India. This partnership is critical in the light of possible US sanctions for acquiring S400 defense system from Russia.
  • Close regional ties is also essential to ensure India’s global stand as a third world country. India has so far been successful in this balancing act. This is evident in the close relations India has with Iran, Saudi Arabia and Israel, despite them having rivalry between them.   

INDIAN EFFORTS:

• Diplomatic visits:
  • Both regions have made several diplomatic visits. India has hosted leaders of Middle Eastern Nations such as Saudi Arabia, UAE, Israel and Iran. Indian ministers and officials have also reciprocated the same.
• Military exercises:
  • India undertakes periodic military exercises with regional countries. They include ‘Al Nagah II’ & ’Naseem Al Bahr’ with Oman and ‘Desert Eagle’ with UAE. Also, India recently participated in the Blue Flag exercise of Israel.
  • India is also part of the ‘Exercise Peace Mission’ under Shanghai Cooperation organisation.
• Technological cooperation:
  • India has signed agreements on international development, agriculture and space cooperation with several countries in the region.
  • India has extended the Indian Technical and Economic Cooperation (ITEC) Programme to several countries in the region, such as Jordan, Iran and Iraq.
• Humanitarian cooperation:
  • India actively provides members to the UN Peacekeeping forces in the region.
  • India also provides humanitarian assistance in the form of medical aid, soft loans and developmental assistance. The creation of Delaram-Zaranj Highway in Afghanistan and the US$1 million assistance to Yemen are examples of the same.

CHALLENGES TO INDIAN INTERESTS:

• US Sanctions on Iran:
  • US killed Iranian General Qassem Soleimani, withdrew from Iran nuclear deal and imposed economic sanctions on Iran. This has weakened the dialogue mechanisms, emboldened conservatives and threatens the regional stability. India also has significant oil trade with Iran and stakes in connectivity through Chahbahar port and other projects.

• Pakistan’s influence in the region:
  • Being a Muslim Country, Pakistan has secured considerable relationship with many Middle Eastern Countries. Hence, it has been successful in using this leverage against India in matters such as Kashmir issue and UNSC reforms.
• Political instability:
  • The region is home to several politically unstable countries and deeply segregated societies, both of which are unfavorable to cordial bilateral relations, investments and partnerships.
• Involvement of global and regional powers:
  • The involvement of extra-regional players such as the USA and Russia in the internal conflicts in West Asia aggravates India’s influence over the region. The recent US-Taliban talks in Afghanistan which goes directly against Indian interests is an example. 
• Lack of a comprehensive policy:
  • Unlike the Act East policy, India has not established a comprehensive West Asia policy despite the regions having similar geopolitical significance.

WAY FORWARD:

• India’s relations with countries in the Middle East have blossomed over the past decade but the future trajectories of these ties are not without uncertainty. 
• No major power has the kind of people-to-people socio-cultural compatibility and socio-economic interdependence with countries of the region that India has. Hence India should seek to leverage this advantage. For the same, it should fabricate a coherent policy for West Asia, similar in lines to that of Act East policy.
• Despite having a large Diaspora, India has not leveraged on its use as a soft power. It needs to bring in this factor to its future endeavors with the region.
• India needs to continue the balancing act in West Asia that allows it to have good relations with Saudi Arabia, Iran and Israel alike, the three poles of power at loggerheads with each other in the region.At the same time, maintaining distance from regional fractures and conflicts would allow India to pursue its economic and geo-strategic aims in the region.

Practice Question

Q. The political situations in Middle East provide opportunities as well as challenges to India. Examine?