Population Crisis

SYLLABUS

GS 1 >> Indian Society >> Population

REFERENCE NEWS

A recent study published in The Lancet indicates that India's declining fertility rate is an irreversible trend. The study predicts that by 2050, India's fertility rate could decrease to 1.29, significantly below the replacement level of 2.1. This trend suggests a swift reduction in India's working-age population. While there are benefits to a lower fertility rate, falling beneath the replacement threshold poses serious challenges.

ABOUT TRENDS IN TOTAL FERTILITY RATE 

• The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) measures the average number of children a woman aged 15-49 is expected to have over her lifetime.
• A TFR of 2.1 children per woman is recognized as the replacement level fertility rate. It signifies the fertility rate at which a population can sustain its numbers from one generation to the next without increasing or decreasing.
• When the TFR falls below 2.1, it indicates that the population is not having enough children to replace itself, leading to a potential decline in the overall population size.

According to the National Family Health Survey (NFHS) for 2019-2021:

• India's national average TFR has decreased to 2.0, significantly lower than the highs of 6 or more children per woman observed in the 1950s.
• Urban areas report a TFR of 1.6, while rural regions have a TFR of 2.1.
• States such as Bihar, Meghalaya, Uttar Pradesh, Jharkhand, and Manipur have TFRs above both the replacement level and the national average, making them exceptions.

CAUSES OF FALLING FERTILITY RATES IN INDIA

• Empowerment and Education of Women: The surge in female literacy rates and the increasing participation of women in the workforce have been pivotal. As women gain financial independence and career awareness, they are more likely to delay motherhood or opt for fewer children. This shift reflects a broader societal transformation towards recognizing the value of women's roles beyond just childbearing.
• Healthcare Improvements: Significant strides in healthcare, particularly in maternal and child health, have played a crucial role. The reduction in infant mortality and maternal mortality rates ensures the survival of offspring, encouraging families to opt for fewer children. Improved healthcare practices have reassured parents of the wellbeing of their children, reducing the perceived need for larger families to ensure some children survive into adulthood.
• Family Planning Initiatives: Post-independence, India introduced various family welfare programs, which have had a substantial impact. These initiatives, including cash incentives for maternal and child health aimed at lowering fertility rates, have been instrumental in promoting smaller family norms.
• Changes in Social Norms and Behaviors: Campaigns like 'Hum Do, Hamare Do' and increased contraceptive use have significantly altered societal attitudes towards family size. These efforts have effectively shifted the cultural mindset, making smaller families more desirable.
• Economic Considerations and Wealth Flow Reversal: The economic dynamics of raising children have changed dramatically. The traditional expectation of financial support from children in later life has diminished, making the economic cost of additional children a significant factor in family planning decisions.
• Adoption Preference: An increasing number of families are considering adoption as a viable path to parenthood, further influencing the natural fertility rate. This choice not only addresses the desires of prospective parents but also contributes to the broader trend of declining birth rates.

SIGNIFICANCE OF FALLING FERTILITY RATES

• Enhancement of Social Services: A lower fertility rate leads to a higher per capita availability of resources and infrastructure in the social sector, such as education, healthcare, and skill development facilities. This shift promises a notable improvement in the quality of social services, potentially elevating the overall educational and health status of the population. With fewer children per family, there is a greater opportunity for investment in each child's education and health, fostering a more skilled and healthier future workforce.
• Economic Growth through Improved Labor Productivity: A significant consequence of falling fertility rates is the potential for accelerated economic growth driven by improved labor productivity. With slower population growth, the ratio of capital to labor increases, meaning more resources are available per worker. This scenario facilitates investment in technology and training, enhancing productivity. A younger, more skilled workforce emerges as a catalyst for economic advancement, leveraging the demographic dividend for rapid economic development.
• Environmental Sustainability: Reduced population growth alleviates pressure on the environment and agricultural resources. Lower fertility rates contribute to lessening the strain on natural resources, including land, water, and non-renewable resources. This reduction can mitigate the effects of environmental challenges such as global warming, desertification, pollution, and the loss of farmland, paving the way for more sustainable environmental practices.
• Improvements in Employment Conditions: A smaller working-age population can lead to better employment conditions, including higher wages and improved working environments. This trend may also reduce wage discrimination against migrant workers and address their security concerns, particularly in states with lower fertility rates that are economically advanced. As the labor market tightens, employers are likely to offer better conditions to attract and retain workers, benefiting the overall workforce.
• Increased Female Workforce Participation: The decrease in fertility rates can lead to increased participation of women in the workforce. As the need for childcare decreases, women have more opportunities to engage in employment outside the home. This shift is evident in areas such as the Southern States, where women's participation in schemes like MNREGA has increased. The empowerment and economic independence of women contribute to the family's income, enhancing their role in economic development.

CHALLENGES OF FALLING FERTILITY RATES

• Impact on Economic Growth and Labor Force: A significant decline in the working-age population can threaten economic and social stability. This trend, observed in countries like Japan, has been associated with stagnating economic growth due to a diminishing labor force. As the proportion of young, working-age individuals decreases, there's less manpower available for industries, potentially hampering economic progress and innovation.
• Ageing Population and Fiscal Pressure: One of the most immediate concerns of fertility rates dropping below the replacement level is the shift towards an aging population, akin to the demographic challenges faced by China. An older population structure increases the demand for pensions, healthcare, and other forms of social support, leading to a rise in non-developmental government expenditure. This shift can strain public finances and redirect resources from developmental projects to sustenance of the elderly.
• Innovation and Entrepreneurship Dilemma: Young populations are often seen as vital for driving innovation, entrepreneurship, and the development of new technologies. A decrease in the fertility rate results in a smaller young demographic, potentially reducing the available 'brain pool' necessary for creative and technological breakthroughs. This demographic shift could slow down the pace of innovation and economic dynamism.
• Social and Gender Imbalances: Lower fertility rates can exacerbate gender imbalances, especially in societies with a preference for male offspring. The desire for a male child, in the face of declining birth rates, could lead to increased gender selection practices, resulting in skewed sex ratios. This imbalance poses significant social challenges, including the potential for increased gender discrimination and societal instability.
• Workforce Shortages and Economic Pressure: As the fertility rate falls, the subsequent reduction in the labor force can lead to labor shortages, placing the economy at risk. The scarcity of workers not only threatens the stability of industries but also puts pressure on existing employees, potentially leading to increased wages and operational costs for businesses.

WAY FORWARD

• Adopting a Nordic Model for Family Support: India should consider embracing the Nordic countries' approach to nurturing new families, which includes accessible childcare services, healthcare investment, and initiatives to involve men in promoting gender equality. This model, renowned for supporting family life, could significantly benefit Indian families.
• Increased Domestic Involvement from Men: Encouraging men to share more household and caregiving duties can ease the burden on women, facilitating a balance between motherhood and professional life. This change could also shift perspectives towards child-rearing over adoption among working women.
• Adjustment of Economic Strategies: Modifying economic policies to encourage growth, generate employment, and revise social security and pension schemes is critical for addressing the challenges posed by a declining fertility rate. These measures would help create a more resilient and supportive economic environment.
• Formulating Migration Policies: It's crucial to develop policies that manage inter-state migration ethically and effectively. Such policies should aim to correct the demographic imbalances caused by varying fertility rates across India, particularly in the southern states where the decrease is more pronounced.

PRACTICE QUESTION

Q: Critically analyze the implications of India's declining fertility rate on its socio-economic landscape and suggest measures to address the associated challenges.(15M,250W)