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Syllabus
GS 2: International Relations: Effect of policies and politics of developed and developing countries on India’s interests
REFERENCE NEWS
The global nuclear order is under strain:Created in the shadow of the Cold War the GNO has held reasonably well, but is facing pressures under changing geopolitics. (The Hindu)
ABOUT GLOBAL NUCLEAR ORDER
The Global Nuclear Order refers to the international system, agreements, norms, and structures that govern and regulate the use, possession, proliferation, and control of nuclear weapons and nuclear energy worldwide.
It encompasses a complex network of treaties, agreements, and norms that have evolved over time to manage the risks associated with nuclear weapons and promote nuclear stability, non-proliferation, disarmament, safety, and peaceful uses of nuclear technology.
ELEMENTS OF GLOBAL NUCLEAR ORDER
Non-Proliferation
Efforts to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons to additional states.
Disarmament
Initiatives aimed at reducing and ultimately eliminating nuclear arsenals globally.
Nuclear Material Security
Measures to safeguard nuclear materials, facilities, and technologies from theft, sabotage, or unauthorized access.
Peaceful Use of Nuclear Energy
Promotion of nuclear technology for peaceful purposes such as electricity generation, medicine, agriculture, and industry.
International Agreements and Treaties
Frameworks like the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), and others that establish norms, regulations, and obligations related to nuclear activities.
International Organizations and Agencies
Bodies like the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) that oversee nuclear activities, inspections, and promote nuclear safety and security worldwide.
CURRENT STATUS OF GLOBAL NUCLEAR WEAPONS
According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), the global nuclear arsenal is witnessing the following developments:
Modernization and Expansion- The 9 nuclear-armed states, including the United States, Russia, and China, continue to modernize and expand their nuclear arsenals. Other nuclear-armed countries are the UK, France, India, Pakistan, North Korea and Israel.
Total Global Inventory- As of January 2023, the total global inventory of warheads is estimated at 12,512, with approximately 9,576 warheads held in military stockpiles for potential use.
Dominance of Russia and U.S.- Russia and the United States possess almost 90% of all nuclear weapons, with relatively stable sizes of their respective nuclear arsenals.
Arms Control Concerns- The suspension of the strategic stability dialogue and the Treaty on Measures for the Further Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms (New START) has halted discussions for a follow-on treaty.
INDIA’S STAND ON THE GLOBAL NUCLEAR ORDER
Non-Signatory to NPT- India is not a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) due to concerns over its discriminatory nature, regional security dynamics(Pakistan and China), a commitment to universal disarmament, and the desire to maintain nuclear autonomy.
Nuclear Weapons Possession- India possesses nuclear weapons and conducted nuclear tests in the past(1974-Smilimg Buddha and 1998-Operation Shakti), facing sanctions but later negotiating agreements for civilian nuclear cooperation. Ex: U.S.-India Civil Nuclear Agreement(2005).
Advocate for Global Disarmament- India advocates for global nuclear disarmament while seeking recognition as a responsible nuclear power.
Complex Position- India’s stance is complex due to its pursuit of civilian nuclear energy for development and maintaining a nuclear deterrence policy.
International Engagement- Despite not being a signatory to the NPT, India engages in international nuclear forums, emphasizing its non-proliferation track record and commitment to global security.
Nuclear Disarmament- India supports complete disarmament within a specified timeframe which distinguishes its stance from Nuclear Weapon States (NWS) which have an ambiguous stand regarding timeline for disarmament. India also insists that disarmament must be ‘non-discriminatory’ and pursued ‘on the basis of equality’ i.e., there must be no discriminatory provisions in favor of NWS as is the case with the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).
ISSUES WITH THE CURRENT NUCLEAR ORDER
A. GLOBAL ISSUES
Expansion of Nuclear Capabilities: A pressing concern is the extension of nuclear weapons to more nations. This situation raises alarms about the stability of regions, as an increase in countries with nuclear arms amplifies the likelihood of conflicts and the possibility of devastating outcomes. Ex: The AUKUS agreement involves the provision of nuclear submarines to Australia, which is not a nuclear-armed country.
Nuclear Arms Control and Reduction: Current nuclear arms control treaties, such as the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), are facing difficulties in both enforcement and compliance. Moreover, there is a noticeable stagnation in further nuclear disarmament actions by nations with nuclear weapons, which casts doubts on the future of the worldwide disarmament agenda.
Technological Advances in Nuclear Weapons: Nations with nuclear weapons are persistently upgrading their arsenals, incorporating more sophisticated and potentially destabilizing new technologies. Progress in missile defense, hypersonic weaponry, and other novel technologies are creating unpredictable scenarios in terms of strategic balance.
Novel Dangers and Unconventional Players: The prospect of non-governmental entities or unpredictable states acquiring nuclear materials or know-how represents a grave threat. The risk of cyber-attacks aimed at nuclear facilities or control systems introduces a novel aspect of danger. Ex: The illicit nuclear network run by Pakistani scientist A.Q. Khan, which supplied nuclear technology to North Korea, Iran, and Libya.
Rising Geopolitical Strains: The strained relations among nuclear-armed countries, like the USA, China, Russia, and others, are causing instability. Issues such as proxy wars, territorial disagreements, and global rivalries increase the chances of a nuclear clash. Ex: Russia's decision to withdraw from the CTBT and the termination of certain USA-Russia bilateral treaties.
Safeguarding Nuclear Materials and Facilities: The ongoing need to secure nuclear substances, installations, and technologies is a constant challenge. The accidental or unauthorized deployment of nuclear weapons, whether due to technical malfunctions, human errors, or terrorist activities, remains a significant threat.
B. ISSUES FOR INDIA
Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) status- India is not a signatory to the NPT, which creates complexities in its relationship with the global nuclear order. India’s nuclear program was developed independently, leading to its status as a nuclear-armed state outside the NPT framework.
Nuclear Arsenal Expansion- India continues to expand and modernize its nuclear arsenal. This expansion raises concerns about regional stability, especially given the long-standing tensions with Pakistan and the strategic rivalry with China.
Relations with Pakistan- The nuclear dynamics between India and Pakistan pose significant challenges. Both countries possess nuclear weapons, and historical animosities and frequent border disputes elevate the risk of a nuclear conflict, creating instability in South Asia.
China Factor- India’s nuclear policy is also shaped by its relations with China. As China continues to modernize its nuclear capabilities, India might feel compelled to bolster its own arsenal, leading to an arms race and heightened tensions in the region.
INDIA’S NUCLEAR DOCTRINE
In the year 2003, India adopted a Nuclear doctrine based on “NO FIRST USE” (NFU) policy. Certain key aspects of the draft were:
India would not initiate a nuclear attack on any country.
India would not use nuclear weapons on non-nuclear states.
India’s nuclear arsenal will be used for the sole purpose of defence and would serve as a deterrent against external nuclear attacks.
The retaliatory 2nd strike to a first nuclear attack would be massive and would inflict unacceptable damage on opponent.
India would adopt the Nuclear triad model to develop capability of launching nuclear attacks on 3 fronts i.e. land, air, and water.
WAY FORWARD
Disarmament Negotiations: Urge nuclear-armed states to significantly reduce their arsenals, drawing inspiration from historical precedents like the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) between the U.S. and Russia, which led to considerable reductions in deployed strategic nuclear weapons.
Non-Proliferation Enhancement: Reinforce global efforts to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons, focusing on the effectiveness of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), which has been instrumental in limiting the number of nuclear-armed states since its inception in 1970.
Inclusive Diplomatic Dialogue: Promote dialogues among nations, emulating the P5+1 negotiations with Iran that led to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), an agreement aimed at curbing Iran's nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief.
Technology Risk Management: Address emerging technology risks, like the documented cyber attacks on nuclear facilities such as Stuxnet, which targeted Iranian nuclear centrifuges in 2010, underscoring the need for robust cybersecurity measures.
Treaty Advocacy and Engagement: Support initiatives like the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW), adopted by the United Nations in 2017, and encourage dialogues with nuclear-armed states to participate and commit to a future without nuclear weapons.
Awareness and Education Promotion: Promote educational campaigns similar to the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN), which won the Nobel Peace Prize in 2017 for its efforts.
Thus, creating a just, safe, and improved Global Nuclear Order involves a multifaceted approach that integrates various elements of diplomacy, technology, governance, and international cooperation.
PRACTICE QUESTION
Q:In the context of the recent developments in Global Nuclear Order, critically analyse India’s Nuclear policy. Also provide suggestive measures to restore the “disarmament policy” in increasingly polarised world. (15M, 250 Words).
