MILITARY COUP IN MYANMAR

WHY IN NEWS

• The Myanmar military grabbed power in a coup on February 1, 2021, ahead of a scheduled meeting of the country’s newly elected Parliament.

BACKGROUND:

• Independence:
  • Myanmar gained its independence from the British Empire in 1948 under the Burmese Independence Army, as a democratic nation.
• Military rule:
  • When the non-Burman ethnic groups pushed for autonomy or federalism, alongside having a weak civilian government at the centre, the military leadership staged a coup in 1962
  • In 1988, unrest over economic mismanagement and political oppression by the government led to widespread pro-democracy demonstrations throughout the country
  • In May 1990, the government held free elections for the first time in almost 30 years >> National League for Democracy (NLD), the party of Aung San Suu Kyi won 80% of the seats.
  • However, the military junta refused to cede power
• Democratic reforms:
  • A constitutional referendum was held in Myanmar in 2008
  • According to the military government, the new Constitution of Myanmar will ensure the creation of a "discipline-flourishing democracy".
  • The Constitution was the military’s “roadmap to democracy”, which it had been forced to adopt under increasing pressure from the west.
  • But the military made sure to safeguard in the Constitution its own role and supremacy in national affairs.
  • One quarter of all parliamentary seats would be reserved for military officers and the Ministry of Home Affairs would fall exclusively under military control
• Transition to democracy:
  • A Multi-party elections were held in 2010 according to the Constitution
  • The military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party declared victory in the 2010 elections
  • However, the claim was disputed by numerous pro-democracy opposition groups who asserted that the military regime had engaged in rampant fraud.
  • General elections were held again in 2015. These were the first openly contested elections held in Myanmar since 1990. The results gave the NLD an absolute majority of seats in both chambers of the national parliament.
  • Htin Kyaw was elected as the first non-military president since the military coup of 1962.
  • Aung San Suu Kyi assumed the newly created role of state counsellor, a role akin to a prime minister.
• Trigger event for coup in 2021:
  • The National League for Democracy (NLD)  won the 2020 Myanmar general election in a landslide
  • The military has alleged that the general elections were full of “irregularities” and that therefore, the results are not valid
  • On February 1 of 2021, Myanmar's military, detained State Counsellor Aung San Suu Kyi and other members of the ruling party.
  • The military handed power to military chief Min Aung Hlaing and declared a state of emergency for one year

IMPACT ON INDIA

• May affect India’s relationship with Myanmar’s military:
  • India’s military-diplomatic outreach to Myanmar became a cornerstone of its Act East policy.
  • Indian needs perpetual support and coordination from Myanmar for the maintenance of security and stability along its North East border areas.
  • Operation Sunrise >> a coordinated operation by armies of India and Myanmar >> targeting several militant groups operating in North East India
  • Myanmar handed over 22 Indian insurgents from across the border in 2020
• Adversely affect India’s Infrastructure projects in Myanmar:
  • India has cultivated several infrastructure and development projects with Myanmar, which it sees as the “gateway to the East” and ASEAN countries:
    • Connectivity:
      • India assists projects such as the India-Myanmar-Thailand trilateral highway and the Kaladan Multi-Modal Transit Transport Project.
      • Operationalization of the crucial Sittwe port in Myanmar’s Rakhine state by 2021 is committed.
    • Land Border Crossing Agreement
      • Both countries signed the Land Border Crossing Agreement in 2018, which allowed bona fide travellers with valid documents to cross the border at two international points
    • Energy:
      • Recently, India approved an investment of over USD 120 million in the Shwe Oil and Gas project.
    • Investment:
      • With Indian investments of over USD 1.2 billion, Myanmar holds considerable importance than any other country in South Asia.
• Threat to internal security:
  • India has been concerned over some militant groups like the United National Liberation Front (UNLF) and National Democratic Front of Bodoland (NDFB) from the North-East region taking shelter in Myanmar.
  • Reduced coordination with Myanmar’s military >> may jeopardize India’s effort to ensure stability in North East India
• Increased concern over Rohingyan crisis:
  • India is committed to ensuring safe, sustainable and speedy return of Rohingya refugees from refugee camps of India and Bangladesh.
  • Under Rakhine State Development Programme (RSDP), India has recently proposed to finalise projects under phase-III of the programme, including setting up of a skills training centre and upgrading of agricultural mechanisation.
  • Myanmar’s military is alleged to be insensitive to Rohingya’s plight >> may adversely affect development process in Rakhine state
• Benefits for China:
  • A harsh reaction from India, on the lines of that from the U.S., which has threatened action against those responsible for the “coup” unless they revoke the military’s takeover, would only benefit China.

WAY FORWARD

• Engage with present regime:
  • India should continue to engage with the present regime in Myanmar working towards mutual development of people of both the countries.
• Experience sharing:
  • India should support Myanmar by sharing experiences in constitutionalism and federalism to assist them in resolving the prevailing stalemate.
• An act of balancing to secure India’s strategic interest:
  • India should cultivated a careful balance, between nudging along the democratic process by supporting Ms. Suu Kyi, and working with the military to ensure its strategic interests to the North East
• Check undue Chinese influence:
  • India should work with other SAARC countries to deny China a monopoly on Myanmar’s infrastructure and resources

PRACTICE QUESTION:

Q. “For the past few years India had managed to balance its relation with Myanmar by supporting the democratic process while maintaining a close cooperation with the Myanmar’ s military”. How far this balance may be affected with the recent political developments in Myanmar?